{"id":3348,"date":"2020-03-06T17:41:34","date_gmt":"2020-03-06T17:41:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/?p=3348"},"modified":"2020-03-06T17:41:34","modified_gmt":"2020-03-06T17:41:34","slug":"panicking-about-societal-collapse-plunder-the-bookshelves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/2020\/03\/06\/panicking-about-societal-collapse-plunder-the-bookshelves\/","title":{"rendered":"Panicking about societal collapse? Plunder the bookshelves"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"article-item__header clear cleared pull--both\">\n<h1 class=\"article-item__title serif\">Panicking about societal collapse? Plunder the bookshelves<\/h1>\n<div class=\"article-item__teaser-text serif\">As civilization seems to be lurching towards a cliff edge, historical case studies are giving way to big data in authors\u2019 search for understanding. By Laura Spinney<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"clear cleared\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bordered-container clear cleared pull--both\">\n<div id=\"author-affiliations\" class=\"tab-group text14\" role=\"tablist\" data-test=\"author-affiliations\" data-tab-group=\"\">\n<div class=\"cleared\">\n<div id=\"author-affiliation-news-0\" class=\"tab-box js-box-wrapper\">\n<h3 id=\"author-affiliation-news-0-head\" class=\"sans-serif strong tab tab-skin ma0\" role=\"tab\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"view author info\" aria-controls=\"author-affiliation-news-0-content\" data-tooltip=\"Show author information\"><a class=\"tab-btn block\"><span class=\"tab-btn-container block hide-overflow\"><span class=\"icon icon-right pr20 tab-icon max-width\"><span class=\"block hide-overflow nowrap overflow-ellipsis\"><b class=\"icon icon-right-top icon-mail-12x9-blue pr15 js-no-scroll\">Laura Spinney<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article__aside align-right hide-print\">\n<div class=\"pdf__download shrink--aside\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"align-left\">\n<div class=\"article__body serif cleared\">\n<figure class=\"figure\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"figure__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_17669618.jpg\" alt=\"Four Moais, the typical large monolithic human figures statues, on Easter Island\" data-src=\"\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_17669618.jpg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption>\n<p class=\"figure__caption sans-serif\"><span class=\"mr10\">Monuments to resilience or collapse? The 800-year-old statues of Easter Island.<\/span>Credit: Andia\/Universal Images Group via Getty<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In case you missed it, the end is nigh. Ever since Jared Diamond published his hugely popular 2005 work\u00a0<i>Collapse<\/i>, books on the same theme have been arriving with the frequency of palace coups in the late Roman Empire. Clearly, their authors are responding to a universal preoccupation with climate change, as well as to growing financial and political instability and a sense that civilization is lurching towards a cliff edge. Mention is also made of how big-data tools are shedding new light on historical questions. But do these books have anything useful to share? Any actionable points besides that on my coffee mug: \u201cNow panic and freak out\u201d?<\/p>\n<aside class=\"recommended pull pull--left sans-serif\" data-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/527443a\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"recommended article\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"recommended__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/w400\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_15343102.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"recommended__title serif\">Sustainability: The launch of Spaceship Earth<\/h1>\n<\/aside>\n<p>The newest is\u00a0<i>Before the Collapse<\/i>. In it, energy specialist Ugo Bardi urges us not to resist collapse, which is how the Universe tries \u201cto get rid of the old to make space for the new\u201d. Similarly,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-019-01175-w\" data-track=\"click\" data-label=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-019-01175-w\" data-track-category=\"body text link\">Diamond\u2019s 2019 book\u00a0<i>Upheaval<\/i><\/a>\u00a0suggested that a collapse is an opportunity for self-appraisal, after which a society can use its ingenuity to find solutions. Both writers seem to accept that collapse is inevitable, but they take very different approaches to analysing it. Diamond zooms in to glean lessons from historical case studies; Bardi zooms out to view societies as complex dynamic systems that behave cyclically. Numerous books published in the past few decades chart how research has shifted from Diamond\u2019s approach to Bardi\u2019s.<\/p>\n<div class=\"embed box\">\n<h3 class=\"box__title sans-serif\">THE BOOKS<\/h3>\n<div class=\"box__content cleared\">\n<p><b>Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed<\/b>\u00a0<i>Jared Diamond<\/i>\u00a0Viking (2005)<\/p>\n<p><b>Before the Collapse: A Guide to the Other Side of Growth<\/b>\u00a0<i>Ugo Bardi<\/i>\u00a0Springer (2020)<\/p>\n<p><b>Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis<\/b>\u00a0<i>Jared Diamond<\/i>\u00a0Little Brown (2019)<\/p>\n<p><b>Questioning Collapse: Human Resilience, Ecological Vulnerability, and the Aftermath of Empire<\/b>\u00a0<i>Edited by Patricia A. McAnany &amp; Norman Yoffee<\/i>\u00a0Cambridge Univ. Press (2009)<\/p>\n<p><b>The Collapse of Complex Societies<\/b>\u00a0<i>Joseph Tainter<\/i>\u00a0Cambridge Univ. Press (1988)<\/p>\n<p><b>Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths<\/b>\u00a0<i>Guy D. Middleton<\/i>Cambridge Univ. Press (2017)<\/p>\n<p><b>Why the West Rules \u2014 for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future<\/b>\u00a0<i>Ian Morris<\/i>\u00a0Farrar, Straus and Giroux (2010)<\/p>\n<p><b>War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires<\/b>\u00a0<i>Peter Turchin<\/i>\u00a0Pi (2006)<\/p>\n<p><b>Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World<\/b>\u00a0<i>Jack Goldstone<\/i>\u00a0Univ. California Press (1991)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"box__author sans-serif\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Robust debate<\/h2>\n<p><i>Questioning Collapse<\/i>, a 2009 collection of essays edited by archaeologists Patricia McAnany and Norman Yoffee, took Diamond to task for cherry-picking to spin a good yarn, for example in blaming such iconic societal failures as the population crash of Easter Island on its people\u2019s destruction of their own environment. The story is not so simple, the authors argue. The Indigenous Rapa Nui society weathered a string of environmental crises \u2014 very few of its own making \u2014 yet thrived until the first Europeans arrived. Likewise, is it reasonable to claim that Mayan society collapsed around the ninth century, given that seven million people living in and around Central America speak Mayan languages today? These cases might be better viewed, say McAnany and Yoffee, as lessons in resilience.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"figure\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"figure__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_17669616.jpg\" alt=\"Samburu men fend off a swarm of desert locusts flying over grazing land in Kenya.\" data-src=\"\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_17669616.jpg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption>\n<p class=\"figure__caption sans-serif\"><span class=\"mr10\">East Africa is currently battling the biggest locust swarms in decades.<\/span>Credit: Njeri Mwangi\/Reuters<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Scholars have long warned against peering down the \u2018retrospectoscope\u2019 at apparently neat examples of what not to do. In his influential 1988\u00a0<i>The Collapse of Complex Societies<\/i>, archaeologist Joseph Tainter argues that collapse \u2014 in the sense of the complete obliteration of a political system and its associated culture \u2014 is rare. Even the worst cases are usually better described as rapid loss of complexity, with remnants of the old society living on in what rises from the ashes. After the \u2018fall\u2019 of Rome in the fifth century, for example, successor states took more than 1,000 years to achieve comparable economic and technological sophistication, but were always recognizably the empire\u2019s offspring.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"recommended pull pull--left sans-serif\" data-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-019-00873-9\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"recommended article\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"recommended__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/w400\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_16652038.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"recommended__title serif\">Evolving society: why humanity coheres<\/h1>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Nevertheless, societies do go through rocky patches, from which some emerge transformed. It\u2019s not surprising that scholars should want to understand why. In his thoughtful\u00a0<i>Understanding Collapse (2017)<\/i>, archaeologist Guy Middleton surveys more than 40 theories of collapse \u2014 including Diamond\u2019s \u2014 and concludes that the cause is almost always identified as external to the society. Perennial favourites include climate change and barbarian invasions \u2014 or, in the Hollywood version, alien lizards. The theories say more about the theorists and their times, Middleton argues, than about the true causes of collapse.<\/p>\n<h2>Under strain<\/h2>\n<p>The pressing question, Tainter told a workshop on collapse at Princeton University in New Jersey last April, is why can a society withstand repeated external blows \u2014 until one day it cannot? For him, a society fails when it is no longer able to adapt to diminishing returns on innovation: when it can\u2019t afford the bureaucracy required to run it, say. In\u00a0<i>Why the West Rules \u2014 For Now (2010),<\/i>\u00a0historian Ian Morris proposes a twist on this, namely that the key to a society\u2019s success lies in its ability to capture energy \u2014 by extracting it from the ground, for example, or from nuclear fission once fossil fuels have run out. By contrast, Peter Turchin, author of the 2006\u00a0<i>War and Peace and War<\/i>, suggests that collapse is what happens when a society stops being able to deal with the strains caused by population growth, leading to inequality and strife.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"recommended pull pull--left sans-serif\" data-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/454034a\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"recommended article\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"recommended__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/w400\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_17707840.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"recommended__title serif\">Arise &#8216;cliodynamics&#8217;<\/h1>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Turchin has been compared to Hari Seldon, science-fiction writer Isaac Asimov\u2019s \u201cpsycho-historian\u201d, who studies the past to statistically predict the future. He belongs to a new breed of scientific historian taking a big-data approach, and argues \u2014 controversially \u2014 that societal spasms are cyclic. This idea itself comes and goes: the ancient Greeks took the cyclic nature of history for granted, but it has been unfashionable since the Enlightenment. Today, we tend to have a linear concept of progress, in which life generally improves for most people over the long term. Works such as Turchin\u2019s see this trend as superimposed on an inherent cyclicity in the evolution of societies.<\/p>\n<h2>Reboot cycle<\/h2>\n<p>This raises the question of whether collapse is essential to renewal. Without winter, can you have spring? Bardi says no. Whether you think this good or bad depends partly on your point of view. The mass extinction 66 million years ago was bad for dinosaurs, but good for mammals, sociologist Miguel Centeno observed at the Princeton workshop, which he convened. But if collapse could usher in not only a renewed world, but a better one, shouldn\u2019t we dinosaurs embrace it?<\/p>\n<figure class=\"figure\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"figure__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_17669620.jpg\" alt=\"Two women in bright pink tops and skirts walking down a cobbled street.\" data-src=\"\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00436-3\/d41586-020-00436-3_17669620.jpg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption>\n<p class=\"figure__caption sans-serif\"><span class=\"mr10\">Close to 40% of Guatemalans are Mayan, yet historians talk about the collapse of Mayan societies.<\/span>Credit: J. Emilio Flores\/Corbis via Getty<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>For Turchin and Jack Goldstone \u2014 on whose work on the demographic forces shaping history Turchin builds \u2014 this is good advice only if you understand what causes collapse. Then it might be possible to make the transition less violent or disruptive. Goldstone rigorously dissected upheaval in the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries in his 1991 book\u00a0<i>Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World<\/i>. This convinced him that revolution is an inappropriate response to societal tensions, usually leading to tyranny. Solutions have come instead from deep, meaningful reform. Yet the idea that revolution removes obstacles to progress has \u201cdeluded literally billions of people\u201d, he argues.<\/p>\n<p>An interdisciplinary community of researchers is now searching for patterns that have defined collapse throughout history, to determine what might be an appropriate response. If we can\u2019t and shouldn\u2019t prevent a future crisis, could we at least soften it \u2014 perhaps with the help of new technologies \u2014 so that renewal happens, but less is lost and fewer people suffer? Even if the mind-boggling complexity of human societies makes this a pipe dream, as some argue, it seems a sounder approach than sparring over case studies that might not have constituted collapse at all. Speaking as a dinosaur, whose only alternative is to panic and freak out, I\u2019ll take it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Panicking about societal collapse? Plunder the bookshelves As civilization seems to be lurching towards a cliff edge, historical case studies are giving way to big data in authors\u2019 search for understanding. By Laura Spinney Laura Spinney Monuments to resilience or collapse? The 800-year-old statues of Easter Island.Credit: Andia\/Universal Images Group via Getty In case you &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/2020\/03\/06\/panicking-about-societal-collapse-plunder-the-bookshelves\/\" class=\"more-link\">Sigue leyendo <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Panicking about societal collapse? Plunder the bookshelves<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categoria"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3348"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3348\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3349,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3348\/revisions\/3349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthcounts.com\/blogtraducciones\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}